More on Scott Servais

Servais was named the head of the Texas Rangers minor league system.

"180 players, 30 coaches and 10 trainers will report to Mr. Servais."

"One-time Cubs manager Jim Riggleman once called Servais a prime candidate for a major league managerial job someday."

Although from the article, it sounds like this is leading to a general manager position.

■ Looks like Furcal is going to sign with the Dodgers. They offered a 3/$39M deal to counter the Cubs 5/$50M. Is Furcal worth $13M a year? I doubt it. Should Hendry have offered more money to get him? I don't think so. The contract was larger than what the Dodgers were offering, and Furcal went with the Dodgers. Furcal thought it was worth the risk to get more per year and then sign another big contract in 3 years. Location may have had something to do with his decision. Maybe Maddux gave him an honest appraisal of Dusty Baker. No matter what the reason, Furcal will not be a Cub.

Now what?

The winter meetings start Monday in Dallas. I hope Hendry keeps his sanity and pulls off a couple of nice deals to populate the outfield, the leadoff slot, and get a SS better than Neifi Perez. I'd like to see Cedeno get a shot there, but we all know that's not going to happen with a certain toothpick chomping imbecile writing out the lineup everyday.

Scott Servais Update

"The Rangers are hiring Scott Servais, who was a scout with the Colorado Rockies, as their farm director. Servais replaces Dom Chiti, who became bullpen coach. Charlie Kerfeld is joining the Rangers from San Diego as a special assistant to help in professional and Latin American scouting."

This is a stepping stone to General Manager. Jim Hendry better watch his back.

A Closer Look at Relievers

After a heated debate about the Eyre signing, I decided to take a closer look at the available free agent relievers.

If I were going to sign a relief pitcher, he would have had to prove that he is:
1. Good
2. Reliable
3. Not in decline

Other factors to consider would be whether he was lefty or righty and his age.

Good
Relievers are notoriously difficult to evaluate. Forget ERA, Wins and Losses. Saves and holds are very dependent on when the pitcher was used. Strikeouts per 9 and Walks per 9 is pretty good. WHIP is pretty good. I decided to use OPS Against. OPS is probably the best single measure of offensive ability, so using it in reverse should give a pretty good indication of a pitcher's ability to get batters out. It doesn't explicitly include strikeouts, but walks are figured into the on-base percentage portion.

Reliable
The pitcher had to have been healthy and effective enough to have pitched in the past three years. I drew an arbitrary cutoff at 30 IP a year. If a pitcher threw less than 30 innings, I consider him not pitching that year.

Not in decline
The pitcher has to either be pretty consistent from year to year, or getting better. I'm not going to quibble over a few points on the OPS Against.

As a litmus test for my approach, Billy Wagner should be at the top (or very close) in all my measurements. He is generally considered to be the best available relief pitcher, so these measurements should reflect that.

I went through the 75 available relief pitcher free agents and pulled their OPS Against for the past 3 seasons. I threw out any years they didn't have at least 30 IP.

This is a table of the pitchers with 3 years of stats, sorted by Average OPS Against. So I wasn't unduly influenced, I didn't include Eyre's stats until I had my formulas and criteria set up.

                      OPS Against
             -------------------------------
Player       2003 2004 2005 Avg  WtAvg Diff
Wagner, B    .499 .518 .494 .504 .503   .001
Gordon, T    .588 .520 .602 .570 .572  -.002
Ryan, B.J.   .615 .549 .571 .578 .571   .007
Farnswrth, K .580 .769 .542 .630 .624   .006
Eyre, Scott  .697 .699 .569 .655 .634   .021
Urbina, U    .637 .659 .672 .656 .662  -.006
Tavarez, J   .614 .620 .754 .663 .686  -.023
Hasegawa, S  .620 .744 .658 .674 .680  -.006
Looper, B    .686 .647 .756 .696 .708  -.012
Stanton, M   .666 .657 .774 .699 .717  -.018

.

The WtAvg column is a Weighted Average giving more weight to more recent years. It is calculated like this:
((2003 OPSA)+(2004 OPSA x 2)+(2005 OPSA x 3))/6

The Diff column is the Average minus the Weighted Average. I used it as a rough guideline as to how the pitcher was trending over the past 3 years. Numbers near zero indicate consistency, positive numbers indicate getting better, and negative numbers indicate getting worse.

As you can see, Wagner is far and away the best relief pitcher free agent. Eyre is the fifth best, and has the best trending of the top 10.

I was a little surprised to see Kyle Farnsworth in the fourth slot, but he did have a really good 2003 and 2005.

I wouldn't use this list as my sole criteria for evaluating talent, but it does give a good objective indication of who should be looked at more closely.

When all 10 of these guys are signed, it will be interesting to go back and see if their contract values follow a similar ranking. Then we'll be able to better answer the question "Did the Cubs overpay for Eyre?"

Here's the full list of available relievers:

                      OPS Against
             -------------------------------
Player       2003 2004 2005 Avg  WtAvg Diff
Wagner, B    .499 .518 .494 .504 .503   .001
Wunsch, K    .511           .511  NA     NA
Reyes, Al              .547 .547  NA     NA
Mantei, Matt .568           .568  NA     NA
Gordon, Tom  .588 .520 .602 .570 .572  -.002
Ryan, B.J.   .615 .549 .571 .578 .571   .007
Howry, Bob        .651 .512 .582  NA     NA
Hoffman, T        .606 .619 .613  NA     NA
Dotel, O     .552 .707      .630  NA     NA
Farnswrth, K .580 .769 .542 .630 .624   .006
Seanez, Rudy      .675 .629 .652  NA     NA
Eyre, Scott  .697 .699 .569 .655 .634   .021
Urbina, U    .637 .659 .672 .656 .662  -.006
Tavarez, J   .614 .620 .754 .663 .686  -.023
Carrara, G        .602 .726 .664  NA     NA
Hasegawa, S  .620 .744 .658 .674 .680  -.006
Carrasco, H  .789      .579 .684  NA     NA
Nelson, Jeff .679      .690 .685  NA     NA
Springer, R            .686 .686  NA     NA
Bottalico, R      .614 .767 .691  NA     NA
Santana, J             .696 .696  NA     NA
Looper, B    .686 .647 .756 .696 .708  -.012
Stanton, M   .666 .657 .774 .699 .717  -.018
Mecir, Jim   .772 .677 .650 .700 .679   .020
Hammond, C   .704 .732 .689 .708 .706   .003
Osuna, A     .767 .654      .711  NA     NA
Miceli, D    .721 .701      .711  NA     NA
Rincon, R    .674 .691 .782 .716 .734  -.018
Weber, Ben   .716           .716  NA     NA
Alfonseca, A .771 .665      .718  NA     NA
Martin, Tom  .625 .816      .721  NA     NA
Quantrill, P .561 .771 .838 .723 .770  -.046
Jones, Todd  .890 .736 .553 .726 .670   .056
Eischen, J   .776      .677 .727  NA     NA
Myers, Mike  .772 .791 .634 .732 .709   .023
Meadows, B   .724 .687 .786 .732 .743  -.010
Worrell, Tim .637 .720 .850 .736 .771  -.036
Takatsu, S        .548 .926 .737  NA     NA
Baldwin, J             .739 .739  NA     NA
Remlinger, M .683 .671 .863 .739 .769  -.030
Brocail, Doug     .699 .780 .740  NA     NA
Eldred, Cal  .743 .779 .699 .740 .733   .007
Rodriguez, F .733 .733 .766 .744 .750  -.005
Christiansen      .723 .766 .745  NA     NA
Embree, Alan .664 .694 .888 .749 .786  -.037
Telemaco, A  .705 .794      .750  NA     NA
Heredia, F   .684 .818      .751  NA     NA
Grimsley, J  .818 .685      .752  NA     NA
Wickman, Bob      .810 .706 .758  NA     NA
Dessens, E   .809 .800 .679 .763 .741   .022
Sullivan, S  .658 .870      .764  NA     NA
Hernandez, R .845 .842 .627 .771 .735   .036
Mendoza, R   .933 .611      .772  NA     NA
Ligtenberg, K.733 .839      .786  NA     NA
Mesa, Jose   .823 .757 .785 .788 .782   .006
Halama, John .765 .793 .812 .790 .798  -.008
Reed, Steve  .755 .751 .872 .793 .812  -.020
White, Gabe  .730 .884      .807  NA     NA
Wasdin, John      .906 .721 .814  NA     NA
Yabu, Keiichi          .814 .814  NA     NA
Reyes, Dennys     .777 .855 .816  NA     NA
Mulholland, T.844 .847 .764 .818 .805   .013
Herges, Matt .603 .890 .972 .822 .883  -.061
Kinney, Matt .783 .879      .831  NA     NA
White, Rick  .845 .880 .771 .832 .820   .012
Groom, Buddy .857 .803 .837 .832 .829   .003
Ginter, Matt      .775 .917 .846  NA     NA
Graves, D    .869 .8011.004 .891 .914  -.023
Powell, Jay  .916           .916  NA     NA
Cooper, Brian      
Karsay, Steve      
Kida, Masao      
Creek, Doug      
Darensbourg, Vic      
Thompson, Justin      
Booker, Chris      

.

Scott "Air" Eyre

My first reaction to Cubs signing lefty reliever Scott Eyre to a 3 year $11 million deal was "Hey, it's Mike Remlinger II."

In the five minutes since the signing was announced, I spent more time reviewing his stats than Dusty Baker ever will.

Here's what I found in the three year splits:

■ He was significantly better on the road (.213 Avg, 2.34 ERA) than at home in spacious SBC Park (.245 Avg, 4.31 ERA). This was surprising to me, but I guess it bodes well. I was worried that his numbers were skewed better playing in that park.

■ Differences between Day and Night games was negligible.

■ Averaged .73 innings per appearance. In other words, he won't eat up innings.

■ Was great against lefties (.200 Avg, .565 OPS), but was respectable against righties (.252 Avg, .718 OPS). Doesn't matter though. He throws with his left hand, so he will only face lefties. Dusty heard about that while riding the bench in LA one night.

■ In 5.2 innings pitched in Wrigley, he didn't give up a run. Not fair though. He was facing the Cubs offense.

■ Don't ever let him throw more than 30 pitches (1.333 OPS in only 8 ABs).

■ Used to pitch for the White Sox.

■ Used to pitch for Dusty Baker.

■ Signed with Chicago so he could be closer with his family.

■ One good sign: some of his former Giants teammates called him to beg him to stay with the Giants.

■ Don't believe that this was a 2 year deal. He has the option on his third year, and I bet he will be exercising that option when 2008 rolls around.

A good bullpen is one of the hardest things to put together. Hendy in the past has went out and spent a lot on the best available reliever (see Remlinger, Hawkins). These moves didn't work out wonderfully, but Hawkins was actually good for a while until Dusty broke his fragile psyche by putting him in a role that didn't suit him and he said he didn't want (he has a tendency to do that (see Patterson)).

The Cubs needed help in the bullpen, and they needed a reliable lefty. Eire seems to fit the bill. Time will tell.

Rumors

Furcal - He wants $50 million for five or six years. That's a lot of money and time for Lil Saucy. I'd like to have his leadoff bat and defense for the next two or three years, but twice that is a bit of a risk. If Hendry can shoehorn a clause stating that the Cubs could void the contract if Furcal gets another DUI or other run-in with the law, then I say go for it.

Pierre - He's not terrific, but at this point I'd take him over Patterson. He could be your 1 or 2 hitter, provide pretty good centerfield defense, get on base and bunt. It's a little concerning that he only has one year left on his contract, so the Cubs might be trading Patterson for a one year player, but I'm out of ideas for Patterson. Keeping him on the team is not a very appealing option to me right now. Gene Clines and Dusty Baker are sure not going to fix his swing, and he takes no interest in learning what the strike zone is, so get what you can for him. Maybe he'll blossom somewhere else, but he's not going to do it here.

Thome - What? We already have Lee. Yes, but the Phillies are looking to trade Thome because they have Ryan Howard. Thome would love to play with the Cubs (remember him wanting to meet with the Cubs when he was a free agent even though the Cubs had no interest in him at the time?). The only way I make this deal is if 1) Lee is willing and able to play the outfield, 2) the Phillies pay a significant portion of Thome's salary, and 3) the Cubs don't have to give up that much for him (say Todd Walker and two mediocre prospects). This is all wild speculation, and with Thome's bad back, it might not even be that big of an impact, but if he could stay healthy, he would provide the left handed power hitter to balance the lineup.

Mmmmm....

1. Pierre CF
2. Furcal SS
3. Lee LF
4. Thome 1B
5. Ramirez 3B
6. Murton RF
7. Barrett C
8. Cedeno 2B

Now back to reality:

1. Patterson CF
2. Walker 2B
3. Lee 1B
4. Ramirez for half the season, then hurt, then Neifi Perez
5. Reggie Sanders (or equivalent) LF
6. Murton RF
7. Barrett C
8. Cedeno SS

Sob.

The Worst Series Matchup

Going into the playoffs, I made the comical observation that the worst World Series matchup would be the White Sox and the Astros. One of them would have to win.

Do I hate the White Sox? I'd like to say no. I often say that I don't care about the White Sox, and that's pretty much true. I'm way happier with a Cubs win than a White Sox loss. The White Sox are just this other thing that I am aware of, but really don't give much thought to.

The only American League games I generally ever watch are Yankees vs. Red Sox. Is it completely over-hyped? Of course. But it's still really entertaining baseball. I have to agree that it is the best rivalry in all of sports.

Anyway, back to the White Sox. I usually just don't care about them. They win, they lose, whatever. But what really irritates me is the bandwagon fans that I have been seeing more and more of lately. Seeing people with White Sox hats, shirts, jackets, underpants... these are people who have never uttered a word about baseball in my presence. Suddenly they are the biggest White Sox fans in the world.

Oh, also, Hawk and DJ really annoy me. I cannot watch a White Sox game broadcast by this pair. Even watching it as campy comedy doesn't work anymore. I thought I might be able to watch a White Sox game in more comfort in the postseason since those two wouldn't be calling the game, but I neglected to realize that announcers almost as bad would be doing the game throughout the playoffs. God I hate Chris Berman, Mike Pizza, Joe Buck, Tim McCarver, Joe Morgan and Steve "Psycho" Lyons. Why can't FOX or ESPN hire Harry Kalas to call the playoff games? He has an awesome voice and has been in the game forever. I would rather listen to him than FOX and ESPN's lame attempt at being "hip" by using young broadcasters. They're not hip. They suck.

Oh yeah, the White Sox. So a convergence of things has led to me really wanting the White Sox to lose:

Number one on the list is not wanting to hear from White Sox "fans" about how they won and Cubs didn't. As if I thought there might be a second World Series this year that the Cubs did win. If/When the Cubs win the World Series, taunting a White Sox fan about would be about #1730 on my list of things to do afterwards (with most of that list being comprised of celebrating the Cubs championship).

Number two would be having to listening to what a genius Ozzie Guillen is. The man is insane. Sometimes what insane people do ends up working out, simple as that. When you win a whole lot of 1 run games (which the White Sox have), you can think it was because of excellent managing, or luck. I really hate to break it, but it is usually luck. This is not to say the Sox don't have talent. No question they do. But luck is a big part of baseball. Some years, things go your way, and some years, things don't. Tony Graffanino pulling a Buckner was not a result of White Sox talent. Matt Clement having no idea where his pitches were going was not a result of White Sox talent. Holding down the Red Sox offense for three games is a result of White Sox talent. See how that works?

Number three would be Hawk and DJ. I just don't want to hear them. Ever.

Number four is hearing how much better the White Sox are with Scott Podsednik than they were with Carlos Lee. Please. The reason the Sox are so much better this year is simple: pitching. The Sox would have scored more runs with Carlos Lee. No question.

Number five is Guillen calling Tad Iguchi his MVP. I can think of about 6 other guys I would call MVP before Iguchi. He's a solid player, did a good job and is an important guy to have on the team, but if you make up your team with 25 Iguchi's, you aren't going very far.

Number six is how upset I am at Dusty Baker. In case you haven't noticed so far, I firmly believe the man is borderline retarded. He has taken the most talent a Cubs team has had in many years and flushed it directly down the crapper. Knowing how close the Cubs were in '03 and how utterly disappointing '04 was, it makes me a little sick to see the Sox go from nowhere to suddenly the favorites to win it all by just picking up some has-beens (Conteras, Hernandez) and getting career years out of others (Hermanson, Garland). Seems not fair cosmically.

The Astros on the other hand, I just hate the Astros. This was the team that won the division seemingly ever year in the 90's and could never get it done in the playoffs. I'm sick of how gritty and tough Bagwell and Biggio are. I don't care. They had their chance (many of them) and could never finish it. They get the break of being the team geographically closest to Roger Clemens's mansion.

The only World Series I didn't watch in the last 20+ years was 2003. I wanted neither team to win that year. I'd be in the same boat if the White Sox face the Astros this year. The Sox sweep of the Red Sox, and the Astros beating the Braves tonight, it looks like a definite possibility.

How about a Cardinals-Angels World Series?

The Top of the Order

You would be hard pressed to find two worse Cubs to put at the top of the order. Conventional baseball wisdom dictates putting guys who get on base at the top of the order. This allows for RBI opportunities for your heart of the order guys.

The two guys that Dusty picks for the 1 and 2 hole are Neifi Perez and Corey Patterson.

OBP
.305 Perez
.289 Patterson

Those are some really bad OBP. So who would be better options? Just about anyone.

OBP
.466! Lee
.364 Hairston
.364 Walker
.358 Ramirez
.340 Burnitz
.325 Barrett
.303 Hollandsworth

No, I'm not advocating batting Derrek Lee leadoff. He obviously has too much power, and you want him hitting with men on in front of him so he can hit a 2 or 3 run homer instead of the solo shot like he did in the first inning of tonight's game against the Brewers.

The obvious answers are Hairston and Walker. I could understand riding Neifi's ridiculous hot streak and using him at the top of the order, but he has returned to form, so stop pretending he's a leadoff hitter. His offensive slump has been mirrored by his shoddy defense in the past few games.

Give Hairston a shot at shortstop. Put him over there for a week and bat him leadoff. Walker should be batting second with Lee behind him in the 3 hole.

1. Hairston SS
2. Walker 2B
3. Lee 1B
4. Burnitz RF
5. Ramirez 3B
6. Barrett C
7. Hollandsworth/Dubois LF
8. Patterson CF

With Ramirez heating up, don't be afraid to stick him in the cleanup spot if Burnitz starts to slump. As long as Burnitz is hot, keep him fourth to break up the righthanders.

Having Patterson bat 8th does a couple of things. It limits the number of at bats he has, which at this point is wise. He's not very patient, so this could backfire, but it might teach him to recognize bad pitches since most pitchers will be trying to pitch around him to get to the pitcher. He'll also probably get his fair share of intentional walks.

As for the Hollandsworth/Dubois saga, it doesn't seem to really matter which one you use. Dubois has a higher OPS, but Hollandsworth has better speed and defense. I'd go with matchups and a rough platoon and try to ride the hot hand whenever I can.

■ I finally found the perfect use for Jose Macias: hitter in a simulated game. He filled this role in Mark Prior's most recent sim.

■ I'm looking forward to seeing Jerome Williams in a Cubs uniform. He was a top prospect for the Giants and had some success in the majors when he was called up. I picked him up in the minor league draft in my roto league and had him on my team for a few years. He's got a lot of upside. I still can't believe the Cubs got him and Aardsma for Hawkins. The best part about Jerome, he wears a kupa shell necklace just like everyone's favorite 100 mph fastball throwing reliever.

■ The Cubs bench coach is Dick Pole.

■ New rule: You aren't allowed to mention hitting streaks until they reach 20 games. Chip Caray was absolutely obsessed with hitting streaks: "That extends Sosa's hitting streak to three games." Len Kasper just announced that Todd Walker's 6th inning double extended his hitting streak to 9 games. Wow.